Bitcoin's monthly close is shaping up to fall short of a crucial support level, a reversal that runs counter to underlying metrics suggesting traders aren't panicking despite the price action. Through
Bitcoin's monthly close is shaping up to fall short of a crucial support level, a reversal that runs counter to underlying metrics suggesting traders aren't panicking despite the price action. Throughout June, the token bounced between $8,800 and $10,450, with traders actively watching for a finish above $9,000. By 06:54 UTC on June 30, BTC/USD was trading at $9,150 on major exchanges.
The recovery stalled after a sluggish weekend. On Thursday, prices dropped from $9,600 to $8,900 in the aftermath of the June 26 expiration of $1 billion in Bitcoin options, a record for contract expiries. Buyers pushed the price back to $9,260 over the next two days, only to encounter sellers at $9,012 who blocked any further gains.
A close below this level signals trouble on the horizon. Past closes beneath this price barrier have triggered declines to new lows. A move below $9,300 could lead to a drop toward $8,100, retracing the lows seen in May.
On-exchange data points in a different direction. Bitcoin holdings on spot exchanges have fallen to a 13-month floor, Glassnode reported. Coins shifting out of exchanges and into personal wallets indicate that holders believe a price recovery lies ahead.
Bitcoin's immobility shows conviction. Over the past year, 61% of the total Bitcoin supply has not moved. Before the 2017 run that took the price to $20,000, Bitcoin demonstrated this same dormancy. Every unmoved coin removes potential sellers from the market.
Trading volume is moving in the opposite direction. Volume has slipped from $35 billion on June 1 down to $16 billion over the past 24 hours. Spot trading volume on Coinbase has continued to ebb throughout June. Price volatility has compressed to record lows, leaving traders vulnerable to sharp reversals on thin volume.
Bitcoin dropped as low as $8,890 over the weekend before recovering, though on minimal volume. When volatility compresses this much, whipsaws become a threat. Bitcoin has moved in lockstep with the S&P 500 and FTSE 100, meaning any decline in stock markets could drag cryptocurrency prices lower.
