Digital Yuan will give China more control over the economy

Woo pointed to China's speed in rolling out large national initiatives. The current pilot, operating in select districts with a handful of businesses, represents only an opening phase.

The question troubling analysts is straightforward: where does this fit when AliPay and WeChatPay already dominate? These two platforms handle more than 96% of all small retail transactions across China. Woo offers an explanation rooted in Chinese politics. The government permitted these platforms to expand and consolidate, he argues, as a way to concentrate financial activity into a few channels. That consolidation extended state control over transactions into rural regions where monitoring had been weaker.

The DCEP offers capabilities not available in existing payment systems. One is "double off-line transactions." Some analysts argue this could position DCEP as a genuine competitor to the current leaders. Woo disagrees. He envisions DCEP slipping into the existing infrastructure unnoticed, giving authorities expanded oversight of retail spending while consumers perceive no change.

"[F]rom the retail user's perspective, [you] wouldn't necessarily know what has changed — it's going to be the same. They will still use WeChat, the super-app, to do a lot of different things — shopping, calling cabs, transferring money, and so on," Woo said. "It's going to be seamless, no one is even going to know the difference."

Woo speculated that China could encourage trade partners to adopt DCEP in cross-border transactions, potentially weakening the dollar's position in international commerce. That effort faces headwinds. Rising protectionism tied to the coronavirus crisis reduces the odds of rapid global adoption.