Robinhood Launches Prediction Market Hub in Challenge to Polymarket
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes.
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes.
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes. The move puts the retail brokerage in direct competition with Polymarket, the crypto-native platform that processed $3.6 billion in bets during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
At launch, customers can trade contracts on the potential upper bound of the target fed funds rate in May, along with match-by-match outcomes for both the men's and women's college basketball tournaments, including the final championships. Prices fluctuate in cents based on how the market assesses each outcome's probability. Robinhood plans to expand into contracts covering politics, finance, sports, and other events in the coming months.
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The fee structure splits evenly between the two companies: customers pay two cents per contract, with one cent going to Kalshi and one cent to Robinhood. All contracts settle through KalshiEX LLC, the CFTC-regulated exchange that holds the underlying regulatory licence.
Robinhood's prediction markets are available in 49 states. Nevada is the sole exception. Customers need a Robinhood individual investing account with either margin investing enabled or options trading approval to access the hub.
Polymarket demonstrated the appetite for event-based wagering during the presidential election cycle, but operates as a crypto-based platform using USDC on the Polygon network. Robinhood's approach sidesteps the crypto infrastructure question by routing through a federally regulated exchange, lowering the barrier for its existing customer base of traditional retail investors.
The launch reflects a broader push among fintech companies to capture the prediction market segment following Polymarket's breakout year.
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