Kalshi

The proposed paragraph names sports, politics, cultural and weather events, and a companion interim final rule issued the same day puts casino-style gambling outside the definition. The agency adopts the Third Circuit's reasoning and argues against the Ninth and Sixth Circuits, in a dispute the Supreme Court has been asked to settle.

The league argues sports event contracts create risk instead of hedging it, so federal derivatives law does not displace state gambling rules. Ohio and 38 other states and the District of Columbia filed a separate brief a day earlier.

Coinbase Derivatives asked on October 1, and the Division of Market Oversight answered two days later by waiving the ten-business-day review for contracts that already run on funding rates. The same letter records that a KalshiEX broad-based index perpetual was deemed approved on October 2.

The contract has no expiry and uses funding payments between longs and shorts to track an index Kalshi calls the US 500. The exchange filed it with the CFTC in August, the reports disagree on what the agency then did, and its separate filings for perpetuals on single stocks are not trading.

A unanimous panel held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not swaps because a game result carries no financial consequence of its own, affirming Ohio's refusal of an injunction and vacating Tennessee's. Three appeals courts have now ruled and Kalshi has won one of them, with New Jersey's petition already waiting at the Supreme Court.

New Jersey's petition asking whether Dodd-Frank preempts state sports betting law reached the Supreme Court on September 2, and the first amicus brief was docketed three weeks later. The clerk has since pushed the deadline for a response to November 9, which keeps the petition off the justices' conference list until late November at the earliest.

Seven Senate Banking Democrats wrote to Chairman Tim Scott asking that prediction markets be examined in a public, bipartisan hearing rather than the Republican-only roundtable held Wednesday morning with Kalshi's chief executive. Their letter points at Cboe's request to list all-or-nothing options on corporate earnings, a product they argue could reach the SEC's jurisdiction.

Polymarket surrendered more than a third of its monthly volume. Kalshi gave up 7 per cent. The gap says more about the two platforms than the headline decline does.

A unanimous Ninth Circuit panel held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are bets rather than swaps, directly contradicting the Third Circuit's April decision. The CFTC says only the Supreme Court can settle it now.

The order invokes Section 8a(9) emergency powers and warns a state shutdown could force liquidation of federally regulated bitcoin-price contracts. Chair Michael Selig is now openly disputing state jurisdiction over prediction markets.

The Wall Street Journal reported Friday that Schwab and Cboe will launch S&P 500-linked binary options for retail customers in the coming months. Schwab's 47 million accounts will sit one tab over from contracts Polymarket and Kalshi have spent three years building a category around.

Senators voted unanimously on April 30 to bar themselves and their staff from trading on prediction markets, an immediate amendment to Rule 37 introduced by Ohio Republican Bernie Moreno after months of insider-trading concerns over senators wagering on policy outcomes they themselves were shaping.

The CFTC handed Gemini's clearing affiliate a Derivatives Clearing Organization licence, giving the Winklevoss-run exchange the right to clear and settle every futures, options and prediction-market trade it routes through its US marketplace in house.

Wisconsin's attorney general filed three lawsuits arguing prediction market contracts are illegal sports bets, escalating a jurisdictional battle between states and the CFTC that is almost certainly headed to the Supreme Court.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has staffed its new Innovation Task Force with five senior advisors drawn from private practice and the agency's own ranks, moving from policy blueprint to drafting actual rules for crypto, AI systems and prediction markets.

In an extraordinary intervention, the DOJ and CFTC have asked a Phoenix judge to halt Arizona's criminal case against prediction market Kalshi, arguing that sports and election event contracts are swaps under federal law and beyond the reach of state gambling statutes.

A federal appeals court has ruled 2-1 that the Commodity Exchange Act preempts state gambling laws, granting the CFTC exclusive jurisdiction over prediction market platforms and setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge.

Polymarket and Kalshi have drawn more than $200 million in wagers on Iran conflict outcomes in 2026, but a series of controversies — from bets on downed pilots to suspected insider trading netting nearly $1 million — has triggered congressional action and raised existential questions about the industry's ethical boundaries.

Prediction market platform Kalshi has appointed Democratic strategist Stephanie Cutter as a policy adviser, balancing its earlier hire of Donald Trump Jr., as the industry faces simultaneous legal challenges from US states and the federal government.