Robinhood Launches Prediction Market Hub in Challenge to Polymarket
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes.
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes.
Robinhood has opened a prediction markets hub through CFTC-regulated exchange Kalshi, offering event contracts on Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and NCAA basketball tournament outcomes. The move puts the retail brokerage in direct competition with Polymarket, the crypto-native platform that processed $3.6 billion in bets during the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
At launch, customers can trade contracts on the potential upper bound of the target fed funds rate in May, along with match-by-match outcomes for both the men's and women's college basketball tournaments, including the final championships. Prices fluctuate in cents based on how the market assesses each outcome's probability. Robinhood plans to expand into contracts covering politics, finance, sports, and other events in the coming months.
Advertisement
728×90
The fee structure splits evenly between the two companies: customers pay two cents per contract, with one cent going to Kalshi and one cent to Robinhood. All contracts settle through KalshiEX LLC, the CFTC-regulated exchange that holds the underlying regulatory licence.
Robinhood's prediction markets are available in 49 states. Nevada is the sole exception. Customers need a Robinhood individual investing account with either margin investing enabled or options trading approval to access the hub.
Polymarket demonstrated the appetite for event-based wagering during the presidential election cycle, but operates as a crypto-based platform using USDC on the Polygon network. Robinhood's approach sidesteps the crypto infrastructure question by routing through a federally regulated exchange, lowering the barrier for its existing customer base of traditional retail investors.
The launch reflects a broader push among fintech companies to capture the prediction market segment following Polymarket's breakout year.
MiningPool content is intended for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.
A unanimous panel held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are not swaps because a game result carries no financial consequence of its own, affirming Ohio's refusal of an injunction and vacating Tennessee's. Three appeals courts have now ruled and Kalshi has won one of them, with New Jersey's petition already waiting at the Supreme Court.
Seven Senate Banking Democrats wrote to Chairman Tim Scott asking that prediction markets be examined in a public, bipartisan hearing rather than the Republican-only roundtable held Wednesday morning with Kalshi's chief executive. Their letter points at Cboe's request to list all-or-nothing options on corporate earnings, a product they argue could reach the SEC's jurisdiction.
Polymarket surrendered more than a third of its monthly volume. Kalshi gave up 7 per cent. The gap says more about the two platforms than the headline decline does.
A unanimous Ninth Circuit panel held that Kalshi's sports event contracts are bets rather than swaps, directly contradicting the Third Circuit's April decision. The CFTC says only the Supreme Court can settle it now.
Arcus's pTokens give the holder a pro-rata claim on a managed perpetuals account at a fixed leverage level, and they move like any other spot asset, lending markets included. The chain underneath them went live eight weeks ago.
The letter of intent routes Apex brokerages' crypto prediction trades through Gemini Titan, the CFTC-registered exchange Gemini launched after its December DCM approval.
·William Dale
Stay informed
Verifiable crypto journalism, delivered to your inbox.
Weekday mornings. No hype. No financial advice. Just what happened and why it matters.
