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Tech

Buterin Expects Hegotá to Be Ethereum's Last Normal Fork

Buterin's post puts Ethereum's 2030 target at four to eight second slots and finality in eight to 32 seconds, against 12-second slots and about 13 minutes today. It also has nodes checking a proof instead of re-executing every block.

By MiningPool Staff··3 min read
Buterin Expects Hegotá to Be Ethereum's Last Normal Fork

Key Points

  • Buterin's post puts Ethereum's 2030 target at four to eight second slots and finality in eight to 32 seconds, against 12-second slots and about 13 minutes today.
  • It also has nodes checking a proof instead of re-executing every block.

Vitalik Buterin published an essay on Sunday, September 27, arguing that the next Ethereum hard fork will be the last one assembled out of parts a developer from 2015 would recognize. The post, titled The Cryptographic World Computer, calls Hegotá likely Ethereum's last “normal” fork and puts the heavy cryptography in the releases that follow it.

The framing is that Ethereum is still called a blockchain largely for historical reasons. Buterin describes what is being built instead as a hybrid construction: a chain that keeps Satoshi Nakamoto's consensus ideas at its base, wrapped in cryptographic verification and privacy, with decentralized off-chain components doing work the chain no longer does itself. To make the contrast concrete the post annotates sections of the Bitcoin whitepaper and sets a 2010 column against a 2030 one, section by section.

The row that carries the most weight is the one asking how a node verifies a block. The 2010 answer is full re-download and recompute. The 2030 answer is SNARK verification plus PeerDAS for data availability. A node would check a succinct proof that the block was executed correctly and sample enough pieces of the block's data to be confident the rest exists, rather than fetching every transaction and running it.

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Parts of that are not hypothetical. The post credits PeerDAS with having begun the transition, and the fork now being tested takes a step in the same direction. Glamsterdam ships block-level access lists under EIP-7928, which attach a manifest of the accounts, storage slots and resulting state changes to every block, giving light clients and stateless validation designs a way to check work without replaying each transaction. MiningPool covered that fork when the Ethereum Foundation opened a public testnet for it in August.

The latency figures are where the post is most specific. Its table sets 2015, with blocks about 17 seconds apart and roughly 200 seconds for 12 confirmations, against a 2030 column of about four to eight seconds a slot and eight to 32 seconds to finality. Those two columns do not measure the same guarantee. Twelve confirmations under proof of work described the probability that a block would stay in the chain, while finality is a state the consensus rules assign to a block once it has been justified and then built on by another justified checkpoint.

Against today's mainnet the gap is still large. Ethereum's documentation puts a slot at twelve seconds and an epoch at 32 slots, or 6.4 minutes, and finalization needs two of those epochs. Two epochs of 6.4 minutes is about 13 minutes. The 2030 column would bring the same step inside 32 seconds, which on those inputs is between roughly 25 and 100 times faster depending on which end of the range holds.

For scale outside Ethereum, Solana has been cutting its slot target in stages and moved to 250 milliseconds on September 18, averaging about 267 milliseconds across the epochs that followed. Slot length alone does not make two networks comparable, because finality rules and node requirements differ, but it places the range Ethereum is reaching for in 2030 inside territory other networks already operate in.

Hegotá is the fork after Glamsterdam, and Buterin places it next year. Sixty-two improvement proposals were submitted for it, and the Foundation's protocol team graded them earlier this month without including any post-quantum code, while fixing December 2029 as the deadline by which Ethereum's execution, consensus and data layers must all survive a quantum computer. The essay puts the same work in the same place. Everything after Hegotá, it says, “involves recursive STARKs, automated formal verification, highly optimized consensus algorithms, and making it all quantum-safe.” That leaves the forks between 2027 and the end of 2029 to carry it.

What the post is not is a schedule. It names no improvement proposals for the work after Hegotá, gives no date beyond next year, and does not mention Glamsterdam. It also reaches past shipped code in places, raising indistinguishability obfuscation as a development that would remove the tradeoff between privacy and general-purpose computation, a primitive with no practical implementation today.

The verification argument is the part resting on work already done. A node that checks a proof and samples data is doing a different job from a node that re-executes a block, and the post's claim is that Ethereum has already started making that change rather than that it plans to.

MiningPool content is intended for information and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice.

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